Nobody should panic.
there are 150ish games left.
But, The American League is full of surprises so far.
Its too early for conclusions, but not to early for some fun pontificating. If the playoffs started tomorrow, Baltimore or Toronto would be the champion of the east (they have the same record and they meet tonight), Oakland would come out of the West, Chicago from the Central and Kansas City would be the Wild Card (this is assuming that all three teams win tonight). None, i repeat, NONE were projected by the national media to go to the playoffs.
In fact, Baltimore and Kansas City were consensus picks to finish dead last in the league. Baltimore was thought by some to be competing with cross-town national leaguers Washington for the crown of worst team in baseball. In fact, even the Nationals looked to surprise early in the senior circuit, winning their first three before promptly losing nine straight.
So if these teams are winning, where are the supposed contenders?
In the Central Division they occupy the basement.
The Indians have lost almost every series they’ve played so far this year. They stand at 5-7. They’re not as bad as rival Detroit, who are whopping 2-10 thus far. But, they’ve certainly shown some alarming trends.
First and foremost is the performance of staff ace, reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and blockbuster-free-agent-to-be C.C. Sabathia.
In three starts C.C. has gone from mediocre to downright awful. He has gone 0-2 with a ridiculous 11.57 ERA in only 14 innings. By far his worst start was his last one, where he went 3.1 innings and gave up 12 hits and NINE earned runs. Nine. last year he averaged just over 7 innings per start, another ridiculous stat in today’s baseball atmosphere but on the opposite spectrum.
His turnaround is perplexing, but with the performance of the other starters, it may turn out to be a good thing for the Indians in the long run. If Sabathia has an average-poor year, either the Indians will be better-able to afford him or more comfortable with letting him walk.
Speaking of walks, his fellow-ace Fausto Carmona started out well despite walking 9 in his first 13 innings (covering two starts). He only gave up one earned run in those two starts combined and stood at 1-0. Then came the other day’s implosion. Two days ago he walked 8 in 3 innings. EIGHT in THREE. included here was a walk with the bases loaded. and how did the bases get loaded? you guessed it! he walked all three of them.
here there is less cause to worry. His breaking pitches have been downright nasty this year. he only needs to control them. The indians recently signed him to a cheap cheap cheap deal in which they can pay him potatoes for four years and then hold club options for the following three years. gotta love that language barrier. Fausto could be the indians Ace for the next 7 years while being paid like the 4th or 5th starter on most teams. brilliant.
So if Sabathia and Carmona are struggling, why did i say it would be OK if CC struggled throughout the year? because of the bounce-back efforts of Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook.
Both pitchers spent the early part of last year on the DL. Westbrook took most of the first half to recover and never really got back on track. Lee never recovered and despite being one of three AL pitchers to win 44 games or more from 2004-2006 (westbrook was in there too) he found himself in the minor leagues for most of the second half and competing for a job in spring training this year.
So far, Westbrook and Lee have combined to go 3-1 with a 1.74 ERA. They have combined for 31 innings pitched in 4 total starts. neither pitcher can keep up this torrid pace, but their return to competence has to be a comfort for Indians fans.
The bullpen is the other area of concern. Though much less easy to predict, and much less experienced so far this year, the bullpen was seen as a strength heading into this season. Reigning AL saves champion Joe Borowski and set-up men Rafael Bentancourt and Rafael Perez (who were the best set-up combo in baseball last season) have the three worst ERAs in their own bullpen, of 13.50, 5.06 and 9.00 respectively.
None of their ERAs are in any way respectable on last-place teams let alone contenders. Bentancourt would be the only pitcher to survive on a last-place team at this pace. It is ridiculous to jump to conclusions about the bullpen yet, but its deficiencies are worth pointing out.
i’ll try to give the hitters another week before i jump on them.
We’ll see how the upcoming Tigers series goes.
